When its All Counted

Hello from a little restaurant in Danville (PB&J),

We are less than 24 hours from the official opening of election day here in the country, and if I were to say it has been a national cycle like no other, most would say that is an understatement. Like many Americans, I cast an early Mail-in ballot. I did not believe I would still be in here in Pennsylvania, though I am. According to the NYT, over 75 million people have already cast their ballot. The total number of ballots cast in the 2020 Presidential Election was 155, 507,476, which was the largest percentage of the electorate since 1900, and 46% of that vote was mail-in (it is important to remember this was during the height of COVID). If we get the same overall turnout as last election, that would mean over 48% of the people voting did it by mail. The change in that mode since 1996 is incredible, which 89% of the electorate voted in person. My figures come from both Wikipedia and the AP. Even since the last election, where former President Trump argued vociferously that mail-in was fraudulent, the Republican Party has certainly moved toward at least a cautious embracing of the “absentee” mode. What are the consequences of a wider swath of the electorate moving to this mode? First, the likelihood of having a clear winner on November 5th is virtually impossible. Second, the longer it takes, the more suspicion there will be about the veracity of our process.

It is important to understand why it takes so long to count. First, there is the mere volume of votes. Second, there are those states whose laws do not allow for the counting of mail-in ballots until election day. My state is one such state, and as the rather top tier battleground state because of electoral votes, it is completely impossible to have the votes all counted by the end of Tuesday evening. The managing of the envelop within an envelop and then signing the outside envelop, which does not see that difficult to me, has proven to be a problem. And a problem to the level that the SCOTUS just ruled on a Pennsylvania challenge in the last 48 hours from the last election. There is the possibility of submitting a provisional ballot, which means it is not counted until there is no doubt there is no second vote out there. All of that takes time. One still needs to vote in their assigned precinct. Last election, I believe there were over 2.5 million mail-in ballots cast in the Commonwealth. The other state, which does not allow early counting includes Wisconsin, which is also a battleground state. The 2020 election saw a 90% turnout in Wisconsin and a 71% turnout in Pennsylvania. I believe this election will see similar results. Why do I consider all of this? Because I want to understand the process versus casting stone and dispersions about what we are doing. I believe the people who have committed to working the polls deserve our respect and our support. I believe we still have an incredible democracy in spite of the significant volume of commentary that asserts otherwise. In the 15 years I have lived in Columbia County, I have been greeted by many of the same people each election cycle. They have committed themselves to our democratic process. Second, I live in an area referred to by many as Pennsyl-tucky. I do not live in a blue county.

What I do find important, in spite of the intense, the extreme level of vitriol during this election is the consequential broadening of people who are paying attention to the candidates and the process. I think the reason for that focus is based on a few important things. When the election was between and 81 and 78 year-old set of declining males, and a rematch, people were disillusioned, and understandably so. The move toward a person a generation younger as well as the gender difference (particularly at the last moment) is unprecedented. Second, former President Trump, regardless what you think about him, is a lightening rod, and certainly some of the things he says when he goes off-message are head-turning. Finally, I believe the sharply divided electorate, which has characterized our 21st century American will continue to create more involvement. This returns me to some of what I wrote recently. The money spent on our political process is obscene. Even in this state, the money spent on the Senate race is staggering (344 million as of 48 hours ago). More importantly, the two major donors to the Republican challenger, David McCormick, are from Florida. The monetary floodgates opened by Citizens United v. FEC has foundationally changed how we manage the election process at all levels. Again, there are consequences for the average American, and it is easy to feel disenfranchised. Nevertheless, I believe the importance of casting a vote has never been more necessary. It is only through our voting that we can begin to quell some of the disinformation, the misinformation, and the international players that seem to increasingly influence our political process. When we turn out and cast our educated vote (note I added a adjective to that), we show that we need to protect our political experiment that Benjamin Franklin was questioned about by Elizabeth Willing Powel. I do believe if we think, if we ask questions, and we analyze before we vote, the Republic is safe, but too often people do not put in the requisite work. The why is an easy question, but the answer to why is complex.

For too long, young people more characteristically have been disengaged with our elective process. While I am hoping some of that will change with a younger person running for President, I spoke with a person I know incredibly well. They are generally thoughtful and engaged, but neither registered nor voted today. They decision to not do so was telling to me. I do not believe they could bring themselves to vote for the former President, but asked what Vice President Harris had really done for them in the past four years. First, I noted the role of Vice President and the reality that the same would have been asked about any Vice President. Then I noted specific places her deciding vote in the United States Senate mattered for things they actually cared about (e.g. first-time home ownership, the importance of the SCOTUS and what the current court did). What I got was a promise they would register and vote going forward. Certainly, there are a number of things that could be said, but getting them to think about this more critically was an important step. Statistics show a regular lack of involvement of the 18-24 demographic that is 20% lower than other voters. That is a stunning statistic, particularly when there are 30.8 million people in that demographic (NCES.gov). When I was in the classroom, I noted the importance of a first time voter because their vote will resonate for them for 60 years or so.

As I finish this blog, it is now election day. All polls, prognosticators, pundits, or other political gurus note this will be the most competitive Presidential election certainly since 2000. What I do hope is by the end of the next 48 hours or so, we will have a clear sense of who the President-elect will be. As importantly, I hope the candidates and the American public will accept the result of the election. I do believe the great majority of the American people want to believe in, trust in, this American experiment. As noted by Dr. Franklin, back at the beginning of the Republic, that we will have a Republic as long as we can keep it. This two-and-a-half century experiment has been a strong example of what can occur when people are given the freedom to decide. Certainly, there are some dents in our shiny armor. Certainly, there are some questions regarding if it all matters. And yet in my heart of hearts I believe it does. May you have good weather as you go to cast your vote today. May our poll workers be safe and secure as they try to assist us in our democratic process. May we believe in the goodness of the American public . . .

Thanks for reading as always. And please vote today!

Michael